Poor yield, acreage issues, and high demand have fueled the Centennial hop shortage. Fortunately, brewers have options.

If you enjoy IPAs or even pale ales, you’re probably familiar with the floral notes of rose, citrus, and resinous woody pine from Centennial hops. This aromatic varietal is a cross between Brewer’s Gold, Fuggle, East Kent Golding, and Bavarian hops, and it’s been commercially available since 1990. Its aromatic profile is well-rounded, and craft brewers can’t get enough of it… literally. There’s not enough of it.

Centennial is by no means at risk of going into the hop graveyard, but the current shortage of this public varietal is very real. To make matters trickier, the shortage isn’t caused by just one issue. Sure, the low yield from the 2023 harvest means fewer hops. In reality, poor yields just made an existing problem much worse.

Learn what’s driving the current Centennial hop shortage and discover solutions that allow brewers to continue crafting beverages with these popular flavors and aromas. 

Low Centennial Yield Caused By Weather Conditions

Unfavorable weather conditions last year led to poor yields in some of the largest hop-producing regions of the U.S.. Washington’s Yakima Valley experienced an unusually cold April, followed by heat in May and a cooler June. This is likely the cause of the “split bloom” that impacted many Centennial fields. 

A split bloom occurs when multiple reproductive cycles happen simultaneously, leading to a mix of mature and young cones. While not all Centennial bines experienced split bloom, it was prevalent enough that some farmers harvested as much as two weeks early. 

In a Pre-Harvest Update video, director of grower services at Yakima Chief Ranches, Joe Catron, told Craft Brewing Business, “This year is a little funky. A lot of things seem to be a little bit early. We’ve got several growers in Oregon and a few up in Washington already picking Centennial.”

Hop Talk explained that some growers staggered their harvest times in an attempt to allow juvenile cones more time to mature. That was in August of 2023. Their mid-hop harvest update just a few months later provided more specific details on yield.

This year, Centennial yields were significantly lower in Washington and Oregon. Specifically, we estimate that Washington's yields are down by 17% to 19% compared to 2022, which was already a low-yielding year. This represents nearly a 25% decrease from the long-term average.

Hop Talk

2023 Mid-Hop Harvest Update in the Yakima Valley

It’s important to note, however, that while poor yield is a major factor, it made pre-existing issues worse.

Fluctuating Hop Demand and Acreage Issues

According to the 2024 Hop Acreage Strung for Harvest Report, total hop acreage in the US has declined significantly. In a press release, they specified that “United States hop acreage strung for harvest in 2024 is forecast at 44,543 acres, down 18 percent from last year’s total of 54,318 acres.”

So, the Centennial hop shortage is an issue of reduced acreage and poor yield, right? Mostly yes, but it’s more complicated than that.

While it sounds contradictory, there’s a surplus of some varietals at the moment. If you’re not well versed on the complicated nature of hop supply and demand, this sounds like the opposite of a problem. To understand its relevance and impact on the current Centennial shortage, we need to look back a few years.

While the popularity of craft beer ebbed and flowed in the mid-2010s, hop farmers optimistically hedged their bets and planted LOTS of hops. This made the years leading up to 2021 some of the highest acreage years in U.S. history. Unfortunately, fluctuating consumer demand left many hop suppliers with a surplus. 

This caused prices to fall, and suppliers had to put hops into cold storage. The surplus was so extensive that when Alex Barth of John I Haas spoke at the 2023 American Hop Growers Convention, he recommended the industry reduce aroma hop acreage by 10,000. While it took farmers a while to adjust, they’ve since complied. 

This type of adjustment period isn’t new for the hop industry by any means. For aroma varieties that had been overplanted, it made sense for farmers to reduce acreage to rebalance the market. Centennial, however, had a more significant reduction in acreage compared to other varieties over the past several years. 

Craft Brewers Hit Hard By Centennial Hop Shortage

Centennial acreage had been reduced in recent years because farmers prioritized proprietary varieties like Citra®, Strata®, and Mosaic® instead of public varieties like Centennial and Cascade. To make matters worse, Centennial has a short shelf life. Essentially, older crops don’t retain the positive attributes of new crops, so they lose value and demand. This makes shortage issues even worse.   

In February 2023, the Brewing Industry Guide noted, “Centennial has only started to recover from a 58 percent decline from its peak in 2017, and the consensus is that more acres should, and will, be planted in 2023.”

Even though the 2023 USDA Annual Hop Acreage Report showed that Centennial acreage increased by 5% compared to 2022, it’s not enough to compensate for the 2023 lower yields. Plus, since hop farmers must prioritize contracted hops, low Centennial yields make it even more difficult for brewers who source hops from the open market.

Craft brewers, in particular, are struggling to get enough Centennial hops. Despite past fluctuations in consumer demand for flavor-forward brews, hop-heavy beers like hazy IPAs are still popular. 

Ryan Toenies and Cara Piotrowski, client insights consultants for Circana, told Beverage Insider, "IPA is the primary driver of volume growth for craft, as well as the largest style within the segment (46% volume share).” Understandably, the demand for Centennial hops among craft brewers is still high. 

Sadly, while prices for surplus hops are relatively competitive, the combination of inadequate acreage, poor yield, and increased production costs has caused Centennial prices to spike. 

The Future of Centennial Hops and Shortage Solutions

The truth is that there’s no way to know what the future holds. Sure, the hop surplus lowered prices for certain varietals, but inflation could continue to increase production costs and force growers to charge higher prices. That’s not even factoring in the pre-existing sustainability issues that could be exacerbated by climate change. 

Perhaps most worrying is that some brewers described the aromas from recent Centennial harvests as “less bright.” With demand for Centennial’s citrus and pine flavor and aroma still high, craft brewers are anxiously looking for solutions. 

Blending older Centennial inventory with new crops is an option, but the seasonal drift from the 2023 harvest will make it tricky to dial in the desired flavor and aroma. Plus, it will be extremely difficult to recreate it at scale consistently. 

Some brewers may choose alternative hop varietals with similar features. For example, citrus-forward Cascade or the tropical notes of Simcoe could substitute for the fruit flavors in Centennial. However, for brewers wanting the specific flavor and aroma nuances of Centennial, this may not suffice.

With the unpredictability of future markets and unexpected weather, hop extracts offer brewers the required consistency to continue brewing the beers their customers love. Plus, advancements in hop extracts make them a more efficient and less expensive option. 

Created using ultra-low temperature extraction technology, Optimized Hop Extracts can preserve the most volatile aromatics for varietal-specific flavors and aromas. Features like a 100% utilization rate, lack of “hop creep,” and the lack of seasonal flavor drift make them an ideal solution for brewers needing to lock in the Centennial flavors and aromas even amidst a hop shortage.

Optimized Hop Extracts Lock in Centennial Flavor and Aroma

Our hop-derived Quantum Series offers varietal-specific brewing solutions designed to preserve the most volatile aromatics. The best part? Quantum performs better, is easier to use, and tastes better than other extracts.

Purchase Quantum CEN at roughly 60% of the cost of pellets, or consider having your remaining pellets converted to Quantum. With our tolling process, you’ll not only multiply your dosage by five times on a dosing equivalence, but you’ll also reduce the cost of ownership by about 50%. That means stretching out your inventory at half the original cost.

Want to capture the Centennial flavor and aroma your customers love… forever? 

Our Omni Hop Profiles make seasonal flavor drift and supply inconsistencies a thing of the past. We’ve chemically mapped and cloned the aromatic profiles of hop varietals using terpene isolates from sustainable botanical sources. 

With our Centennial Hop Profile, you can now consistently replicate the bright flavor and aroma of the popular 2019 harvest that makes your brews so special. Plus, you can do it at less than 50% of the cost of pellets and 20% lower than Quantum.